Dilating and contracting arbitrarily

Standard accuracy-based approaches to imprecise credences have the consequence that it is rational to move between precise and imprecise credences arbitrarily, without gaining any new evidence. Building on the Educated Guessing Framework of Horowitz (2019), we develop an alternative accuracy-based approach to imprecise credences that does not have this shortcoming. We argue that it is always irrational to move from a precise state to an imprecise state arbitrarily, however it can be rational to move from an imprecise state to a precise state arbitrarily

Epistemic Value and the Jamesian Goals

William James famously tells us that there are two main goals for rational believers: believing truth and avoiding error. I argues that epistemic consequentialism—in particular its embodiment in epistemic utility theory—seems to be well positioned to explain how epistemic agents might permissibly weight these goals differently and adopt different credences as a result. After all, practical versions of consequentialism render it permissible for agents with different goals to act differently in the same situation. Nevertheless, I argue that epistemic consequentialism doesn’t allow for this kind of permissivism and goes on to argue that this reveals a deep disanalogy between decision theory and the formally similar epistemic utility theory. This raises the question whether epistemic utility theory is a genuinely consequentialist theory at all

Respecting all the evidence

Plausibly, you should believe what your total evidence supports. But cases of misleading higher-order evidence - evidence about what your evidence supports - present a challenge to this thought. In such cases, taking both first-order and higher-order evidence at face value leads to a seemingly irrational incoherence between one’s first-order and higher-order attitudes: you will believe P, but also believe that your evidence doesn’t support P. To avoid sanctioning tension between epistemic levels, some authors have abandoned the thought that both first-order and higher-order evidence have rational bearing. This sacrifice is both costly and unnecessary. We propose a principle, Evidential Calibration, which requires rational agents to accommodate first-order evidence correctly, while allowing rational uncertainty about what to believe. At the same time, it rules out irrational tensions between epistemic levels. We show that while there are serious problems for some views on which we can rationally believe, “P, but my evidence doesn’t support P”, Evidential Calibration avoids these problems. An important upshot of our discussion is a new way to think about the relationship between epistemic levels: why first-order and higher-order attitudes should generally be aligned, and why it is sometimes - though not always - problematic when they diverge.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11098-015-0446-

Family Surveillance by Algorithm: The Rapidly Spreading Tools Few Have Heard Of

The latest reckoning with structural racism in the United States has involved critical reflection on the role of the criminal justice system, education policy, and housing practices in perpetuating racial inequity. But another area long overdue for collective reexamination is the child welfare system and the algorithms working behind the scenes. That's why the ACLU has conducted a nationwide survey to learn more about these tools.This report examines how many jurisdictions across the 50 states, D.C. and U.S. territories are using one category of predictive analytics tools: models that systematically use data collected by jurisdictions' public agencies to attempt to predict the likelihood that a child in a given situation or location will be maltreated

Expecting the Unexpected

In an influential paper, L. A. Paul argues that one cannot rationally decide whether to have children. In particular, she argues that such a decision is intractable for standard decision theory. Paul’s central argument in this paper rests on the claim that becoming a parent is “epistemically transformative”—prior to becoming a parent, it is impossible to know what being a parent is like. Paul argues that because parenting is epistemically transformative, one cannot estimate the values of the various outcomes of a decision whether to become a parent. In response, we argue that it is possible to estimate the value of epistemically transformative experiences. Therefore, there is no special difficulty involved in deciding whether to undergo epistemically transformative experiences. Insofar as major life decisions do pose a challenge to decision theory, we suggest that this is because they often involve separate, familiar problems

Are You Now or Have You Ever Been an Impermissivist? --- A conversation among friends and enemies of epistemic freedom

We debate whether permissivism is true. We start off by assuming an accuracy-oriented framework, and then discuss metaepistemological questions about how our epistemic evaluations promote accuracy

Melatonin for sleep disorders in children with neurodevelopmental disorders: protocol for a systematic review with meta-analysis and Trial Sequential Analysis of randomised clinical trials

INTRODUCTION: Neurodevelopmental disorders are a group of disorders thought to be associated with the functioning of the brain and the nervous system. Children with neurodevelopmental disorders often have sleep-related comorbidities that may negatively affect quality of life for both the children and their families. Melatonin is one of the most used interventions in children with neurodevelopmental disorders and sleep disorders. Previous reviews have investigated the effects of melatonin for sleep disorders in children with neurodevelopmental disorders, but these had important limitations, such as inadequate analysis of adverse effects, small sample sizes and short follow-up. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a protocol for a systematic review with meta-analysis and Trial Sequential Analysis of randomised clinical trials. The protocol is reported in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Protocols. We will search for published and unpublished trials in the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE Ovid, Embase Ovid, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded, Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science, PsycINFO, ClinicalTrials.gov and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We will search the databases from their inception without language restrictions. We will also request clinical study reports from regulatory authorities and pharmaceutical companies. Review authors working in pairs will screen reports, extract data and conduct risk of bias assessments using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. We will include randomised clinical trials comparing melatonin versus placebo or no intervention for sleep disorders in children with neurodevelopmental disorders. Primary outcomes will be total sleep time and adverse effects. Secondary outcomes will be quality of life of the child and caregivers and sleep onset latency. Data will be analysed using random-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses. Certainty of evidence will be assessed with Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was not required for this protocol. The systematic review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022337530

A General Black String and its Microscopics

Using G2(2) dualities we construct the most general black string solution of minimal five-dimensional ungauged supergravity. The black string has five independent parameters, namely, the magnetic one-brane charge, smeared electric zero-brane charge, boost along the string direction, energy above the BPS bound, and rotation in the transverse space. In one extremal limit it reduces to the three parameter supersymmetric string of five-dimensional minimal supergravity; in another extremal limit it reduces to the three parameter non-supersymmetric extremal string of five-dimensional minimal supergravity. It also admits an extremal limit when it has maximal rotation in the four-dimensional transverse space. The decoupling limit of our general black string is a BTZ black hole times a two sphere. The macroscopic entropy of the string is reproduced by the Maldacena-Strominger-Witten CFT in appropriate ranges of the parameters. When the pressureless condition is imposed, our string describes the infinite radius limit of the most general class of black rings of minimal supergravity. We discuss implications our solution has for extremal and non-extremal black rings of minimal supergravity.Comment: 35 pages; 3 figures; v2 section 4.1.1 rewritten + minor changes + ref adde